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SETI Is For Chumps (And Other Reasons Why We Have Yet To Hear From Aliens)
Posted by Mac Tonnies, Tuesday, April 08, 2008 at 09:50 AM by Mac Tonnies
As I've illustrated in previous postings, I'm not convinced the "Fermi Paradox" is quite the insoluble puzzle it's generally made out to be. On the contrary, I think there's ample reason to think the human species could be interacting with a fantastically novel (and secretive) form of ETI, although I realize that proving my hunch is another matter altogether.
Nevertheless, it's worth examining some of the reasons we have yet to receive the popularly conceived extraterrestrial signal currently sought by mainstream SETI researchers. If nothing else, a breakdown of the options casts our own brief legacy as a technological species in a sobering glow.
1.) Maybe some intelligent ETs forego radio transmission in favor of crewed exploration. Although unwieldy by human standards, there are innumerable reasons why spacecraft might be deemed preferable to manning radio telescopes. Put less gently, perhaps SETI is for chumps.
2.) Forget exploration; maybe aliens lose interest in such arduous ventures as soon as they develop technologies that enable them to inhabit custom-engineered realities. Imagine a future incarnation of Second Life; would users voluntarily leave worlds (and bodies) of their own creation if their needs were provided for?
3.) Maybe the situation's grimmer than we like to admit and ET civilizations almost inevitably self-destruct. We've only narrowly avoided nuclear Armageddon here on Earth, and we're still far from reaching a sustainable geopolitical milieu. Why should ETs necessarily be any different?
4.) Of course, there's the "quarantine" hypothesis, which maintains that while at least one ET presence in aware of us, it elects to remain unseen--at least until we reach some arbitrary level of sophistication or enlightenment. In one version of this scenario we're being actively (if clandestinely) groomed for eventual contact, which might explain aspects of the UFO phenomenon.
5.) Perhaps aliens do rely on radio, but only briefly, inevitably graduating to vastly improved modes of communication (some possibly beyond the scope of modern physics). In this case there's a chance we could eavesdrop on a stray transmission, but it would be so old that it would tell us very little about what the originating civilization was up to now … or if it even still existed in recognizable form.
6.) We could be the first. After all, someone has to be. But the sheer number of stars in our galaxy -- to say nothing of the discovery of ubiquitous exoplanets--argues that we aren't. (Perhaps it's equally likely that we're the last, and that other intelligences have long since abandoned long-distance radio communication in favor of hedonistic virtual worlds or a "postbiological" existence antithetical to scientific curiosity. Having ensured their survival, advanced aliens might be a curiously unimaginative lot.)
7.) On a more ominous note, maybe detectable civilizations arise regularly but are quickly snuffed out by a galaxy-spanning intelligence that's adopted the role of cosmic exterminator. Interstellar warfare would seem to be the stuff of pulp science fiction, but the survival imperative is rooted in basic Darwinism. We can't rationally exclude the possibility, however slim, that candidate civilizations invariably fall victim to vengeful self-made gods.
8.) Encrypted transmissions could be so complex -- or so excruciatingly simple -- that we simply don't recognize them as the work of intelligence. Although we take great pains to envision "the alien," our objectivity could be hobbled by our innate tendency to assume ETs will resemble ourselves in at least basic respects.
9.) Some scientists insist that while primitive ET life is relatively common, ET intelligence is effectively impossible in light of the myriad variables that spawned complex life on Earth. Proponents of the "Rare Earth" hypothesis aren't afraid to argue that we could be the only intelligent species in the galaxy, if not the entire universe.
10.) Finally, returning to the scenario outlined in my previous post: Maybe we have intercepted a signal, recognized it as such, and kept it a secret for fear of its potential to destabilize entrenched social structures.
Mac Tonnies
10 Comments:
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Posted by mad mike
April 20, 2008 at 01:50 AM
there is no limit to human greed and folly.(tm)
there is no limit to human stupidity.
what about ///\"lasers"///\?
maybe LGM will use ///\"lasers"///\ to communicate.
we are finite beings in an infinite universe.
we must acknowledge our deep misunderstanding of almost everything that is happening around us.
but, it is sed that magnetic fields reach to infinity.
the brain generates a magnetic field.
do thoughts reach to infinity?
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Posted by Coa HyperFnord
April 15, 2008 at 02:47 PM
I think the arguments about the aliens simply disusing radio dead on.
Just look at us. Within a hundred years the radio bands will probably be dormant. Western society is already phasing out almost the entire analog band, TV and radio.
This is simply a practical reason and there\\'s no reason to think that aliens would keep radio around for longer than its useful.
(Barring apocalyptic situations where analog radio really IS useful).
I really like the idea of us being \"First.\" Obviously of low probability but it sparks the imagination. Perhaps -we- are the \"great old ones.\"
Actually no... that\\'s kind of depressing... ;)
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Posted by The Wizard
April 15, 2008 at 02:20 PM
Or, 7A) The galaxy spanning intelligence, a.k.a. the one true God of Moses and Abraham, having created all this, controls the if, the who, and the when of contact between worlds.
Certainly has to be a possibility, doesn't it?
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Posted by Paimon
April 15, 2008 at 10:30 AM
Is it really that difficult to say "manned" exploration?
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Posted by wintermuse x9
April 10, 2008 at 10:54 PM
\"...I somehow see a candlestick phone... Hello...hello...\" OW! Damn flame from the candlestick phone singed my ear! Perhaps we are all devo, now. Hand me a banana phone--I'll try that number, again. Nope, they don't seem to be picking up the phone on their end. Dumb humans! ;')
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Posted by WMBear
April 09, 2008 at 08:40 PM
Ah, but Mac. Whoever actually was/is The First would think/have thought the same way -- "We can't possibly be the first, it's just too unlikely." And yet, they would be....
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Posted by Bruce Duensing
April 09, 2008 at 05:09 AM
The Fermi Paradox is based on a critical assumption which is an assumption based on sentient life as we self referentially define it.
Chumps pounding out on their telegraph keys by signals communications in an age of quantum discoveries is a quaint provincial anachronism. I somehow see a candlestick phone... Hello...hello..give me central 8-2000...Julius Caesar..what!? He's dead you say?
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Posted by Ben
April 09, 2008 at 04:02 AM
Agree totally with point 5. Radio technology would really only be used by a civilization over a few hundred years. Its pointless to communicate using radio over vast intergalactic distances as your race would have given up waiting for a response by the time it arrived. Technology hopefully will be developed here to bypass this and become instant from point A and B at any distance.
This isn't to pull the rug from under SETI's feet, I think its commendable that they are looking for intelligent life in the Universe and more likely than not its out there as life seems inevitable given the opportunity. I guess we're just restricted by our own technology or doomed to find another civilization no more developed than our own.
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Posted by Mac Tonnies
April 09, 2008 at 12:51 AM
Ha! I imagine a room-full of lab-coated chimps diligently "listening" to banana phones...
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Posted by mr intense
April 08, 2008 at 07:22 PM
When I first scanned the heading of this piece, I thought it said "SETI is for chimps" (not chumps). Perhaps that is truer than I at first thought.
Could somebody hand me a fresh banana--me am hungry now.
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